Southeast Asia Information Port (www.dnyxxg.com) reports that Vietnam's exports are projected to reach approximately US$470 billion by the end of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 16%. However, entering 2026, with increasing market openness, Vietnam's exports are warned of risks arising from over-reliance on a few major markets. Therefore, proactively exploring new markets is becoming an urgent requirement to ensure sustainable export growth.
According to statistics from Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 11 months of 2025, the country's total import and export volume reached US$839.8 billion, of which exports amounted to US$430.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. However, the export market structure is highly concentrated, with the United States accounting for approximately 32%, the European Union 15%, China nearly 14%, ASEAN nearly 10%, and South Korea and Japan each approximately 6%. In other words, more than 80% of Vietnam's exports depend on these six major markets.
Vu Ba Phu, Director of the Trade Promotion Agency of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, recently stated at the Vietnam Export Promotion Forum that focusing on major markets helps enterprises effectively utilize tariff preferences and free trade agreements to drive export growth against the backdrop of recovering purchasing power in major markets. However, this model also increases vulnerability to policy shocks. Tran Phu Lu, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Trade and Investment Promotion Center, pointed out that most trade remedy investigations, carbon tax pressures, and requirements related to labor, the environment, and traceability originate from markets with the highest export share. When these markets simultaneously raise their standards, the growth potential of Vietnamese goods will be compressed if businesses cannot adapt in time.
Tran Phu Lu believes that the current market development strategy should proceed on two fronts. In traditional markets such as China, the EU, and the US, the goal is to expand market share by improving the quality of growth, focusing on promoting deep processing, increasing R&D investment, improving product design, and increasing added value. Simultaneously, support should be provided to businesses to meet increasingly stringent quality, traceability, and green production standards, further consolidating the market position of Vietnamese goods.
In contrast, for emerging and potential markets such as the halal market, India, and Africa, the prerequisite is the ability to meet market regulations. Businesses need to make systematic investments in their production processes, establish dedicated production lines, and obtain mandatory certifications that comply with international practices.
Vu Tri Thanh, Director of the Vietnam Institute of Brand and Competitive Strategy, believes that developing new markets requires clear segmentation and positioning, ensuring product suitability, precise distribution channels, and standard alignment, making new markets a "buffer zone" against pressure from major markets. In addition, indirect exports and cross-border e-commerce are also important ways for enterprises to diversify their markets.
From a macro perspective, Nguyen Minh Phong of the Hanoi Institute of Socio-Economic and Social Development pointed out that by 2026, Vietnam's exports will face the requirement to transform towards a multi-pillar, multi-market, and multi-value-chain model. This process requires concrete, gradual, and feasible measures to help Vietnamese goods maintain a stable and sustainable position in increasingly fierce global competition. (End)
