Southeast Asia Information Port (www.dnyxxg.com) – The ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) stated in its latest "ASEAN Plus Three Regional Economic Outlook" that, affected by the US tariff policy's suppression of exports, the economic growth of ASEAN Plus Three economies, including Laos, is projected to slow to 4.0% in 2026-2027, lower than the better-than-expected 4.3% growth rate in 2025. Despite the pressure from the external environment, strong private consumption, continued industrial investment, and demand for semiconductors driven by artificial intelligence will provide core support for the region's economic resilience.
This outlook report was officially released on April 24th at the "ASEAN Plus Three Regional Economic Outlook and Fiscal Policy Seminar" held in Vientiane, Laos. The seminar, co-hosted by AMRO and the Lao Ministry of Finance, focused on regional economic synergy and fiscal policy optimization, attracting government representatives, economists, and key stakeholders from ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea.
AMRO analysis points out that against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions, the US policy of maintaining a 19% benchmark tariff on some Southeast Asian countries will continue to suppress external demand in the region. However, at the same time, technology-driven exports are showing strong vitality – semiconductor exports from ASEAN countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 21.7% year-on-year in the second half of 2025. The recovery in demand for AI-related applications and cloud infrastructure is driving the global memory chip market recovery, becoming an important engine for export growth. In addition, the continued inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) will effectively offset some of the trade drag. Singapore, with its presence in advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and other fields, has risen to become a semiconductor industry hub in Southeast Asia, with related industries reaching a value of US$122.7 billion in 2025.
Laos' economic prospects are largely consistent with regional trends, with AMRO predicting a growth rate of approximately 4.6% in 2026. While weak external demand will constrain export performance, domestic investment in energy, services, and infrastructure construction will provide strong support. The Lao-Vietnam cross-border highway and the Sekhaman River Bridge project, with a total investment of US$149 million, are progressing steadily. Upon completion, they will reduce cross-border freight transport time by 40%, further consolidating Laos's regional hub status as a "land link to ASEAN." However, AMRO also warned that global economic uncertainty and dependence on key trading partners remain potential risks to the Lao economy.
In his opening remarks at the seminar, Vongkhamheng Vongthachak, Director General of the Department of International Financial Cooperation at the Lao Ministry of Finance, stated that the 4.3% regional economic growth target for 2025 demonstrates the "remarkable resilience" of ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea in responding to trade policy fluctuations. This achievement is attributed to improved regional adaptability, increased demand for high-tech products, and deeper integration. He emphasized, “For the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, these regional trends are not merely statistics, but the environment in which we build our future.”
Vongkhamheng Vongthachaek pointed out that Laos has successfully completed its Ninth National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2021-2025) and is launching its Tenth Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), with the core objective of enhancing economic resilience and consolidating growth momentum. Against the backdrop of increasing global uncertainty, he particularly stressed that “strengthening fiscal discipline and transparency is crucial for maintaining policy flexibility,” and called for deepening regional cooperation: “Closer economic ties can both mitigate shared vulnerabilities and enhance collective resilience; regional cooperation has moved from an ‘option’ to a ‘must’.”
During the seminar, economists from ASEAN+3 (ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea) also released two core documents: the “ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026” and the “ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report.” The report provides an in-depth analysis of the fiscal challenges facing the region and puts forward a number of policy recommendations, including strengthening public finance management reform, promoting regional policy coordination, and optimizing supply chain layout, providing an action framework for addressing downside risks such as trade protectionism, energy supply fluctuations, and financial market volatility.
