Southeast Asia Information Port (www.dnyxxg.com) – The Bank of Thailand (the central bank of Thailand) released a report on the 7th, stating that Thailand's economic growth rate is projected to be only 1.5% in 2026 due to weak exports, high debt, and a slowdown in tourism.
Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Piti Disiattath stated that the world was turbulent last year due to trade policies, and this year it is turbulent due to military actions that could exacerbate geopolitical tensions.
Piti stated that Thailand's economic growth is expected to be below its potential level over the next two years. The projected growth rate in 2026 is only 1.5%, as the Thai economy is still in a period of transition, facing the dual challenges of short-term cyclical pressures and long-term structural constraints.
Piti pointed out that one of the external pressures that monetary policy cannot address is exports, which are no longer the main engine of economic growth as they once were. He stated that compared to regional competitors, Thai exports have benefited very little from the expansion of global technology products.
Piti stated that technology products account for only 17.2% of Thailand's total exports, and the Thai manufacturing industry faces fierce competition from imported products. The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand has slowed due to security concerns and flooding, while the tourism industries of competitors such as Japan and South Korea have already surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels.
He pointed out that Thailand's tourism industry previously attracted as many as 40 million foreign tourists. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the tourism industry recovered from almost zero, gradually rising to around 35-36 million—close to the previous peak—meaning a natural slowdown in growth.
He also stated that this year's Thai general election is expected to delay the 2027 fiscal year budget preparation process by one quarter, which will reduce the economic growth brought about by government spending in the fourth quarter.
Piti said that Thailand's public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue to rise, reaching a peak of 69.8% in 2028, close to the 70% ceiling.
He said that household debt remains high, a key factor constraining private consumption growth and thus hindering national economic growth. Private consumption growth is projected to slow to 1.9% by 2026. He stated that although deleveraging has begun, progress remains difficult. (End)
