Southeast Asia Information Port (www.dnyxxg.com) reports that the recent Central Economic Work Conference proposed "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply," and "deepening the reform of the housing provident fund system and orderly promoting the construction of 'good houses'."
Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have accelerated the introduction and implementation of various supportive policies, actively releasing rigid and improved housing demand, and promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. Experts interviewed stated that during this crucial stage of adjustment and transformation in the real estate market, the market structure is showing signs of differentiation.
—The substitution effect of second-hand homes on new homes is increasing. As housing development enters a new stage, a decline in new home sales and the dominance of second-hand home transactions will become the norm in the real estate market. From January to November, the proportion of second-hand home transaction area in the total transaction volume nationwide was 45%.
Liu Guiwen, Vice President of Chongqing University, believes that the traditional incremental transaction pattern dominated by new home sales is shifting towards a pattern of both new and second-hand home sales, and further towards a mature market pattern dominated by second-hand home transactions.
Liu Lin, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the supply and demand relationship in the current real estate market has undergone significant changes. The decrease in new supply this year is both a positive feedback from local governments' strict control over new supply and a result of market self-adjustment.
Regarding the policy of "controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply according to city-specific measures," the China Index Academy analysis suggests that new land supply in cities or regions with large inventories is expected to be strictly controlled going forward, and local policies to reduce inventory will continue to be implemented.
—Some hot cities have taken the lead in showing a positive trend of recovery. From January to November, the total number of new and second-hand home transactions in cities such as Xiamen, Guiyang, and Wuhan maintained year-on-year growth.
Qin Hong, a senior researcher at the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, believes that the hot cities performing well share common characteristics such as solid fundamentals and coordinated policy efforts. On the demand side, measures such as optimizing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios have reduced the threshold and cost for residents to buy homes; on the supply side, emphasis is placed on optimizing the land supply structure and encouraging enterprises to develop products that meet demand.
Qin Hong believes that the experience in hot cities shows that increasing the supply of "good housing" is key to activating the market and stabilizing expectations, especially in terms of quality improvement, supporting facilities, and service optimization to meet market expectations.
—Rental demand has replaced some home purchase demand. Chai Qiang, president of the China Real Estate Appraisers and Brokers Association, believes that with the rapid development of the housing rental market and the accelerated implementation of the "equal rights for renters and buyers" policy, my country's housing consumption pattern is being profoundly reshaped.
Li Yu-jia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the demand for public rental housing from low-income groups is increasing, but the effective supply is still insufficient, urgently requiring solutions through revitalizing existing housing stock.
Regarding the active and prudent resolution of real estate enterprise risks, it has been learned that: recent debt reduction efforts by real estate enterprises have made positive progress, industry risks are gradually being cleared, and large real estate enterprises are increasing land acquisitions in hot cities; at the same time, the campaign to ensure the delivery of properties is progressing steadily, with eligible projects being included in a "whitelist" for financial support, and market confidence is gradually recovering.
