Southeast Asia Information Port (www.dnyxxg.com) – The global commodities market experienced a stark contrast in performance during the week of August 11-17. Driven by the US imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee and concerns about supply shortages, coffee prices surged 18% in a single week; however, as geopolitical tensions eased, energy prices unexpectedly declined. Despite this divergence, the MXV- index bucked the trend, rising 0.7% to close at 2182 points.
Most industrial raw materials declined during the week, with coffee continuing its strong rebound. Specifically, Arabica coffee rose over 10% to $7532 per ton; Robusta coffee surged nearly 18%, reaching the $4201 per ton mark.
The high tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian coffee continue to constrain bilateral trade. Given that current US coffee stocks can meet 30-60 days of demand, coffee import and export between the two countries have virtually ground to a halt. Therefore, coffee industry leaders in both Brazil and the US are intensifying their lobbying efforts with the Trump administration to seek tariff exemptions on the grounds that "the US does not produce coffee domestically."
Since 2025, Brazilian coffee exports have continued to shrink. Data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association shows that exports from January to July totaled only 22.1 million bags, a sharp decrease of 21.4% year-on-year, a reduction of nearly 6 million bags.
The 2025-2026 Brazilian coffee production season remains uncertain, especially for the Arabica variety. Although the USDA predicts production will reach 65 million bags, many parties, including traders, growers, and agricultural experts, believe that actual production may be between 53 and 57 million bags, 13%-18% lower than expected.
In the Vietnamese domestic market, coffee companies are slow to make export offers. Due to high prices weakening competitiveness, most warehouses have suspended quoting new orders, and companies are focusing on fulfilling existing contracts.
From August 8th to 14th, domestic green coffee bean prices jumped sharply. As of the 14th, the purchase price reached 111,000-112,000 VND/kg, with some warehouses urgently needing to replenish their stocks even paying as high as 113,000-114,000 VND/kg, mainly due to depleted domestic and international inventories.
On the other hand, Vietnam exported 16,800 tons of Arabica and Robusta coffee (excluding instant) in the week of August 6-12, a surge of 24% compared to the previous week's 13,500 tons. From the beginning of the year to August 12, Vietnam's cumulative exports of this type of coffee reached 918,000 tons, a significant increase of 41% year-on-year. (End)
