Southeast Asia Information Port (www.dnyxxg.com) reports that a reduced durian harvest in Thailand will drive up prices. Institutions predict this will increase farmers' income by 0.3%. The total durian production in the east and south is projected to be approximately 960,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 18%.
Kasikorn Research Center believes that due to abnormal weather, especially reduced rainfall caused by El Niño, the durian harvest in the eastern region is down by about 14% year-on-year. The southern region, which is about to enter its harvest season, is also affected, with fewer flowers and a lower fruit set rate expected, resulting in a production drop of up to 25% this year.
While the reduced durian production will push up market prices, the increase in income for durian farmers will be limited. To maintain good fruit quality, farmers will have to buy water for irrigation or purchase irrigation equipment, which will be a significant expense.
However, based on current information, the total durian production in the eastern region is projected to be around 650,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 14% year-on-year. The total durian production in southern Taiwan is projected to be around 310,000 tons, a decrease of 25%. As for durian prices, this year's prices are expected to be 22% higher than in previous years.
However, from the perspective of durian farmers' income, the actual room for increase will be very limited, estimated at around 0.3%. Eastern durian farmers will see a 4% increase in income, while southern farmers will suffer an 8% loss.
